last uploaded to htfiddler.net/psdocs: 1/13/08, 10:00 PM

sam.pco, Plan S, see \ps\index.xls

 A. 10 million year species span, list ...
    1. What follows is a composite of Richard Leakey, E.O. Wilson, Stuart
       Pimm and several Wikipedia pages:

       The universe is ~13.7 billion years old.

       Our Milky Way Galaxy is ~13.6 billion years old.

       The earth and our solar system are ~4.6 billion years old.

       DNA based life emerged ~3.5 billion years ago.

       ~30 billion species have existed on earth to date.

       Of these ~30 billion, ~100 million species exist today.  The rest are
       extinct.

       Simple math tells us that of ~30 billion total species, 99.7% are
       extinct, and .3% are present today.

       There have been ~6 "major mass extinction events" over the past 540
       million years.

       We live during the latest (6th) extinction event.  Our rate of
       extinction is ~300 species going extinct per day.  The typical range
       expressed is between 100 and 1000 per day.

       E.O. Wilson estimates that during this 6th extinction, half of all
       present species will go extinct.  This would be ~50 million species.

       This current major mass extinction event is being caused by humanity.

       The background rate of extinction is ~4 per year.  The typical range
       expressed is between 1 and 10 extinctions per year.

       Simple math tells us that humanity is causing the extinction rate to
       be ~10,000 times the base background extinction rate, give or take an
       order of magnitude.

       Humanity or "man" (genus Homo) appeared ~2.5 million years ago, in
       the form of Homo Habilis (handy man).

       Homo Erectus likely harnessed fire ~1.5 million years ago.

       Anatomically modern Homo Sapiens have been around for ~160,000 to
       ~196,000 years, based on the fossil record in Africa.

       Fully modern (mentally & spiritually) Homo Sapiens have been around
       for ~40,000 years, based on the Cro Magnon cave excavations.

       The horseshoe crab (Limulus Polyphemus), is alive and well today, and
       has enjoyed a species-span of ~400 million years.

       There are many species of cockroaches that are alive and well today,
       that have enjoyed a species-span of ~400 to ~500 million years.

       The average species-span of large mammals is between 1 and 4 million
       years.  Homo Sapiens is a large mammal.

       The sun's hydrogen supply will power it for another ~5 billion years.

       Present conditions in our solar system that support "DNA based life
       as we know it", are likely to continue for another ~1 billion years.

       Homo Sapiens will someday be extinct.  Our species-span may be
       affected by how we (intentionally or unintentionally) use our
       collective brains, to either reduce or prolong our species-span.

       Based on the above:

       It is very likely that humanity could be present on earth for another
       1 million years.

       It is reasonably possible that humanity could be present on earth for
       another 10 million years.

       It is possible but unlikely, that humanity could be present on earth
       for another 100 million years.  Consider the increasing possibility
       of an asteroid collision, or other unknown event.

       It is theoretically possible but highly unlikely, that humanity could
       be present on earth for the remaining 1 billion years that the earth
       can be expected to support life.

       Based on my work as a generalist taking the "big picture, long view",
       and based on the above, I am working on plans for a 10 to 100 million
       year species-span for humanity.  This all means that we are presently
       an infant species and are accordingly behaving in infantile ways.
       This should be expected and is not any more unusual than watching the
       infants of any species (including humans), acting in infantile ways!